Financial Centre Frankfurt the preferred destination for Brexit-induced job relocation
In a comparison of European financial centres, Frankfurt clearly ranks in second place behind London. With numerous qualities in its favour, the German banking centre is an attractive location for domestic and international players in the financial sector and has the potential of becoming the preferred destination for Brexit-related job relocations. The following assets that Frankfurt possesses are of particular benefit: The stability and strength of the German economy, the headquarters of the ECB in its dual function, a transportation hub with a good level of infrastructure, relatively low office rents as well as a high quality of life. This is the conclusion that Helaba’s economists arrived at in their Financial Centre Study “Brexit – Let’s go Frankfurt”. But it has serious competition in the shape of Paris, Dublin, Luxemburg or even Amsterdam.
Dr. Gertrud Traud, Helaba’s Chief Economist and Head of Research, stresses: “If Frankfurt really is to become the principal winner of Brexit, it will require a concerted effort on regional, national and European levels as well as a more self-confident approach.”
Forecast for banking sector employment 2018: Stable at around 62,000 jobs
In addition, a further improvement in the conditions offered by the city is essential to ensure its success. In view of Frankfurt’s excellent position in the framework of European financial centres, demonstrated by various studies, Helaba’s economists believe that it has good chances of picking up at least half the jobs in the financial sector that will be shifted from London to Frankfurt in a restructuring process lasting many years. Thus, Frankfurt now faces the task of putting the necessary prerequisites in place, e.g. in the housing market. Based on very cautious assumptions, a total of at least 8,000 employees would come to Frankfurt over a multi-year period. Since companies cannot wait for the outcome of negotiations, more than 2,000 jobs are expected to be relocated by as early as the end of 2018 already.
“This Brexit-induced effect on the labour market will act as a counterbalance to consolidation in local banks”, says the author of the study, Ulrike Bischoff. Both effects should, more or less, cancel each other out within the forecasting window. By the end of 2018, the study anticipates a total of just over 62,000 bank employees in the German financial centre.
A recent study from Deutsche Bank Research has just been released which outlines the potential effects of Brexit on Frankfurt’s property market. The study examines the Financial Centre Frankfurt’s office and residential markets, current and future pricing trends, as well as trends in demand and availability. Furthermore, the analysis from Deutsche Bank compares several European financial centres, showing that Frankfurt is in several ways an obvious and affordable choice for financial services relocated from the United Kingdom.
“In view of the high level of political uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union, it will be some years until the size of the Brexit pie, i.e. the relocation of companies and employees, can be determined fully. Regardless of the final outcome of the negotiations between the UK and the EU, the city of Frankfurt is likely to benefit.
Frankfurt is already continental Europe’s main financial hub, and compared to other European cities, it can boast a range of additional advantages such as low rents and residential property prices, good infrastructure and a highly dynamic economy. However, considering the strengths of its European and also non-European competitors, Frankfurt will end up with only a piece of the Brexit pie.
Frankfurt’s property market would gain considerable momentum even if only a relatively small number of British companies and employees moved here. Growth in employment in the wake of Brexit should stimulate demand for office space, thus contributing to a reduction in vacancies and rising rents in the office market close to the city centre. Following the referendum on Brexit, we have raised our average rent increase expectations in the top segment to over 2% per year by 2020 (double what had previously been anticipated for the 2018-2020 period).
Bottlenecks have existed in the housing market for some years. A large demand overhang – the shortage of housing runs to several tens of thousands of homes – and a lack of undeveloped land are the main reasons why prices have risen by around 25% since 2009. An additional Brexit effect could drive prices up significantly. The rule of thumb in this context is the price per square metre increases by EUR 25 for every 1,000 missing homes. Assuming additional demand for 5,000 homes, residential property prices will increase by EUR 125 or around 4% compared to current levels.”
https://frankfurt-main-finance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Fotolia_113590552_M.jpg10371832David Opphttps://frankfurt-main-finance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/frankfurt-main-finance-logo.pngDavid Opp2016-11-29 14:06:532016-12-09 11:56:57Crumbs or Pie? How much will Frankfurt's property market benefit from Brexit?
The votes have been counted and the UK has decided to leave the EU. But how will this decision affect the Financial Centre Frankfurt? Frankfurt Main Finance’s Hubertus Väth sat down with FINANCE-TV to discuss how Brexit will affect European financial centres and what Frankfurt has been doing capitalize on this opportunity. With some experts predicting that 100,000 jobs could leave London’s financial district, there is a lot at stake and Frankfurt Main Finance had all hands on deck in the hours rigth after the announcement. In cooperation with their partners, Frankfurt Economic Development and FrankfurtRheinMain GmbH, Frankfurt Main Finance launched a website, welcometofrm.com, an information hotline and a social media campaign on LinkedIn and Twitter targeted at decision makers in London’s financial sector. Watch Hubertus Väth’s full interview in the video below (German).