{"id":52959,"date":"2026-04-08T10:00:43","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T08:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/?p=52959"},"modified":"2026-04-08T10:00:45","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T08:00:45","slug":"dvfa-survey-highlights-rising-impact-of-geopolitical-factors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/dvfa-survey-highlights-rising-impact-of-geopolitical-factors\/","title":{"rendered":"DVFA survey highlights rising impact of geopolitical factors"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Wars, looming pandemics, and, in particular, the erratic nature of a potential \u201cTrump 2.0\u201d administration are complicating the work of policymakers, central banks, analysts, and investors alike. Against this backdrop, the DVFA surveyed its members on the impact of geoeconomic developments on the research and investment process.<\/p>

\u201cWe are living in an era in which political events increasingly trigger real-economy and financial market shocks. Measurable and modelable risks are evolving into fundamental uncertainty, as Frank Knight already distinguished between risk and uncertainty in 1921,\u201d commented Ingo Mainert, Deputy Chairman of the DVFA.<\/p>

\u201cPolitical Markets Have Short Legs\u201d: A Principle Under Scrutiny<\/h3>

A long-standing empirical observation suggests that \u201cpolitical markets have short legs,\u201d meaning that political events tend to have only short-term effects on financial markets rather than lasting ones. However, this assumption is increasingly being questioned in light of a of geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks, often described as a state of \u201cpermacrisis.\u201d<\/p>

While a majority of respondents (55%) still consider this principle broadly valid, 34% now question its general applicability, and 11% view it as entirely obsolete. Respondents noted that, depending on the nature of the shock, geopolitical developments and their spillover effects can indeed exert long-term influence on financial markets.<\/p>

Financial Analysis Still Dominates the Investment Process<\/h3>

As political developments increasingly shape macroeconomic conditions and capital markets, the question arises to what extent professional research and investment processes have adapted.<\/p>

Nearly half of respondents (48%) continue to focus primarily on traditional financial analysis. This reflects the view that political frameworks are inherently embedded in economic processes and thus indirectly incorporated into investment decisions.<\/p>

However, 34% now explicitly assign greater weight to political analysis. Meanwhile, 18% remain undecided as to whether recent political developments have materially altered research and investment frameworks.<\/p>

Preference for In-House Political Analysis<\/h3>

Similar to traditional country risk analysis, the assessment of political risk and uncertainty in an increasingly complex environment requires significant resources and long-standing expertise. This involves the continuous collection, processing, and qualitative evaluation of large volumes of non-quantifiable information. Accordingly, financial analysts and investors are frequently faced with a \u201cmake-or-buy\u201d decision.<\/p>

Almost half of respondents (49%) rely primarily on in-house political analysis, incorporating external research only indirectly. By contrast, 37% adopt a hybrid approach combining internal capabilities with selectively sourced external expertise. Only 5% rely exclusively on third-party research.<\/p>

Donald Trump Identified as the Key Uncertainty Factor<\/h3>

Political uncertainty arises from multiple sources. The survey focused on three key drivers of political risk, producing a largely expected outcome: \u201cTrump 2.0\u201d accounts for 59% of responses, followed by Russia (21%) and China (20%).<\/p>

\u201cRecent geoeconomic developments of this magnitude necessitate a broader and more holistic research and analytical framework,\u201d Mainert concludes. \u201cGiven the declining shelf life of assumptions and forecasts, a more cautious approach is warranted. The use of external expertise in decision-making is therefore becoming increasingly important, particularly in the context of political risk analysis.\u201d<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Source: DVFA monthly question<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

According to DVFA survey participants, geopolitical shocks and \u201cTrump 2.0\u201d are increasingly shaping research and investment processes and are raising both uncertainty and the importance of political factors.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":52953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"template-fullwidth.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,105],"tags":[319],"class_list":{"0":"post-52959","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-top-news","9":"tag-dvfa-en"},"acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-04-22 03:36:43","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52959"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52959\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52967,"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52959\/revisions\/52967"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/52953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/frankfurt-main-finance.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}