CFS survey on “Four months of the Trump administration”

As in November, around 80% of respondents believe that trade relations between the EU and the US will deteriorate under the Trump administration. However, only 52% of panelists now believe that EU companies will increase their investments in the US. In November, around 83% were of this opinion. Conversely, only 34% of survey participants now expect the US to invest less in the EU (November: 73%). Compared to November (84%), the proportion of respondents who expect inflation to rise in the US has increased to 95%. “These figures reflect the Trump administration’s unpredictable tariff policy. The resulting uncertainties have become even greater compared to expectations before Trump took office,” says Professor Volker Brühl, Managing Director of the Center for Financial Studies.

With regard to future banking and financial market regulation, the expectations of those surveyed have changed slightly. The vast majority (81%) of the specialists and executives surveyed still expect banking and financial market regulation in the US to become more relaxed in the future. In November, the figure was still almost 90%. “Easing financial market regulation does not appear to be a priority for the Trump administration at present. That may change in the coming years,” explains Brühl.

“If there is a positive side to the current uncertainty, it is the renewed interest of investors in the EU. Section 899 of the US budget draft currently under discussion plays a major role in this. It grants the executive far-reaching powers to impose burdens on investors. Since the draft was tabled, not a day has gone by without international investors adjusting their asset allocation in favor of the EU,” says Hubertus Väth, Managing Director of Frankfurt Main Finance.