Kamala Harris favoured
78% of respondents expect Kamala Harris to win the election. Donald Trump, the former president and Republican candidate, scores 22%. Despite the clear majority in favour of Harris, many comments point to a neck-and-neck race, especially in the crucial swing states. ‘It’s going to be very close’ and “the swing states are going to be decisive”, summarised some participants.
Will there be a clear election victory?
A clear majority of 72% do not believe that there will be a clear election victory. Only 19% expect a clear result. This uncertainty could lead to increased tensions and market fluctuations, especially if the election result remains disputed.
Influence of the vice presidential candidates likely to be manageable
The candidates for Vice President – J.D. Vance for the Republicans and Tim Walz for the Democrats – do not play a decisive role in the outcome of the election, according to 51% of DVFA members who responded. However, 36% believe that the choice of Vice President could influence the outcome, with Tim Walz seen as favouring Harris.
‘Presidential sweep’ unlikely
When asked whether there will be a so-called ‘presidential sweep’, in which one party wins both the presidency and a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives, the investment professionals were sceptical. 51% expect that there will be no such sweep. Only 19 % of participants believe such a scenario is likely, while 30 % did not want to commit themselves
Impact on the financial markets more in the short than long term - higher volatility expected
Another key topic was the impact of the election on the financial markets. Two thirds of survey participants (66%) expect increased volatility in the short term, but only a minor long-term impact. Only 11% forecast a significant impact on the markets, while 21% are of the opinion that political stock markets have ‘short legs’ and that the election will only have a minor impact on the stock markets.
Concerns about fiscal policy
The expansionary fiscal policy of both camps is causing longer-term concerns for 61% of respondents. In particular, the expansionary debt path is seen as a potential risk for the bond market and the US dollar.
Ingo R. Mainert, Deputy CEO of DVFA, comments on the survey results: ‘Among DVFA’s investment professionals, Kamala Harris is the favourite. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how the American people will vote on 5 November, which may lead to increased volatility on the markets in the short term. In the longer term, people are increasingly concerned about the issue of US government debt. This will certainly need to be closely monitored and analysed.’
