Following Europe’s two defining phases of integration – the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community in the 1950s and the establishment of the European Single Market as well as Economic and Monetary Union in the 1990s – many observers now see the need for a further stage of development. Impetus for this comes, among others, from the reports by Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta, as well as the current security policy debate surrounding a potential European Defence Union, including concepts such as a European Federation as outlined by Hans-Werner Sinn. In the latest monthly survey, DVFA Investment Professionals were asked for their views on Europe’s current situation.
Clear Majority Calls for Europe’s Next Integration Step
Participants in the DVFA monthly survey expressed strong support for greater European capacity to act. 84% of respondents believe that Europe must now initiate its next stage of development. Only 12% disagree, while 4% did not express a clear opinion.
Defence Union and Completion of the Single Market Seen as Key Priorities
The survey focused on Europe’s future strategic direction and the political and economic integration steps required. Respondents most frequently identified a stronger security and defence union (33%) and the completion of the European Single Market in line with the proposals of the Draghi Report (26%) as the key priorities. In addition, 14% consider the Banking Union and Capital Markets Union (“Savings and Investment Union”) to be a particularly important step. One fifth of respondents (21%) view all proposed measures as equally necessary.
A Multi-Speed Europe Seen as a Potential Interim Solution
The concept of a “coalition of the willing” also received broadly positive support: 49% of participants regard differentiated integration and varying speeds within Europe as the right approach. 23% reject this model, while 27% remain undecided.
Many Respondents Consider a UK Return to the EU Possible
With regard to the United Kingdom, 41% of respondents do not expect the country to rejoin the European Union. At the same time, however, 26% believe that a return is fundamentally possible, even if the timeframe cannot currently be estimated. A further 26% expect the UK to rejoin within the next ten years.
Financial Market Participants Expect Greater Regionalisation of the Global Order
Looking ahead over the next decade, respondents predominantly expect a stronger regionalisation of the global order: 56% believe that the world will become increasingly organised along regional or continental lines from a geostrategic perspective.
“The results of the latest monthly survey clearly show that financial market participants see Europe at a decisive crossroads. Security, economic competitiveness and deeper capital market integration are increasingly regarded as essential to safeguarding Europe’s strategic autonomy in a more fragmented global order,” summarises Ingo R. Mainert, Vice Chairman of the Board of the DVFA e. V..
Source: DVFA monthly question
