Frankfurt, 2 July 2026. The CFS Index, which tracks the state of the German financial sector on a quarterly basis, fell by 2.7 points in the first quarter of 2026 to stand at 104.3 points. Following record highs at the end of 2025, the executives and managers from German financial institutions surveyed have significantly revised their forecasts for current turnover and profit growth downwards, by 11.9 and 12.4 points respectively. Panellists from the service sector had already reported this downward trend in the previous quarter. Consequently, the decline recorded here was correspondingly smaller. Staff growth across the sector as a whole continues to fall sharply and has stabilised at 94.3 points, below the neutral mark of 100 points. Investment growth remains consistently high at 109.3 points compared with previous years.
“Industry insiders see a financial sector under pressure on margins, which is shifting resources from staff to technology,” said Prof. Dr Andreas Hackethal, Director of the Centre for Financial Studies, commenting on the results.
The assessment of the future international significance of Germany as a financial centre has improved significantly compared with the previous survey period, the fourth quarter of 2025. In the panellists’ current assessment, Germany as a financial centre has gained 11.6 points, reaching a score of 103.3 points (Q4 2025: 91.7 points). Both the assessments by financial institutions and those by service providers are at almost the same level. In the last quarter, financial service providers in particular had taken a surprisingly negative view of the financial centre’s importance.
“The observed turnaround for the better reflects the recent string of successes surrounding Brexit. With the prospect of pension reform, including the introduction of an equity-based component, the outlook is brightening further. We are looking ahead with confidence,” explains Oliver Behrens, President of Frankfurt Main Finance.
Revenue and earnings growth at financial institutions declines significantly
Compared with the previous quarter, growth in turnover at financial institutions has slowed by 11.9 points to its current level of 115.9 points. This downward trend had already been anticipated in the turnover figures of financial service providers in the fourth quarter of 2025 and was already evident at that time in the financial institutions’ expectations for the immediate future. For financial service providers, revenue growth stabilised in the first quarter of this year, standing at 96.7 points (+0.5). The sub-sector’s expectations for second-quarter results are positive and have once again broken through the neutral threshold of 100 points.
Growth in income at financial institutions has slumped by 12.4 points to 114.3 points. The results for service providers have also fallen once again by 5 points to 95.0 points. On average, the index places the sector as a whole at 104.6 points. However, the results for turnover and profit growth in the first quarter of 2026 for financial institutions must be interpreted against the backdrop of extremely high figures in the previous quarter.
Investment growth remains persistently at peak level
By contrast, there has been no change in the growth of the investment volume in product and process innovations within the financial sector. From a long-term perspective, the CFS Index results show that investment growth among financial institutions remains at a consistently high level. The panellists also expect little change in this area in the future.
Employee numbers are declining
Employee growth recorded the sharpest decline: both financial institutions and service-providing companies are reducing staff. On average, the sub-index fell by 9.3 points. Among service providers, the figure of 91.7 points represents the second-lowest level since the index survey began in 2007. In the expectations of the overall sector, the negative trend is set to continue in the future.
General methodology of the index calculation
The CFS Index is based on a quarterly management survey of Germany as a financial center. The index summarizes qualitative information on the corporate indicators “revenue or business volume,” “earnings situation,” “number of employees” and “investments” with regard to the quarter just ended (“performance”) and the current quarter (“forecast”). By design, the maximum index value is 150 and the minimum is 50; a value of 100 signals a neutral sentiment. The survey is a panel-based study of companies and institutions in the financial industry. The panel participants are divided into the sectors “financial institutions” and “service providers” at the financial center, with the second group being defined very broadly.
Brief profile of CFS
The Center for Financial Studies (CFS) conducts independent and internationally oriented research in all key areas of financial markets, financial institutions and monetary economics: from financial stability and banking regulation to securities trading and valuation in financial markets, household portfolio decisions, and the law and economics of financial organizations, as well as monetary policy and the economics of financial markets. Drawing on relevant insights from its research areas, the CFS contributes to political debates and analyses. For its research projects and policy advice, it relies on a network of academics and figures from the financial industry and central banks both within and outside Europe.
Source: CFS press release dated 22 June 2026
