Uncertainties about Trump's economic policy
Following Donald Trump’s election victory and his upcoming second term as President of the United States, a wide range of questions have arisen that also affect economic relations between the US and the EU as well as the financial markets. After all, the United States is the most important export market for many European companies alongside China. Against this backdrop, decision-makers in politics and business are eager to see what the future economic policy of the USA will look like. Donald Trump has also complained in the past about what he sees as unbalanced trade relations with high trade deficits between the USA and the EU.
Survey reveals clear results
More than 80% of respondents believe that trade relations between the EU and the US will deteriorate. At the same time, more than 83% of panellists are convinced that companies from the EU will invest more in the US in order to circumvent trade barriers. Conversely, more than 73% of the participants in the survey expect the US to invest less in the EU. “It will be important to enter into dialogue with the new US administration at an early stage in order to avoid further tariffs and other trade barriers. These would make it more difficult for the German economy to recover,” says Professor Volker Brühl, Managing Director of the Centre for Financial Studies. Almost 90% of the specialists and managers surveyed expect banking and financial market regulation in the USA to be relaxed in future. This could also lead to a liberalisation of the crypto markets due to the support for Bitcoin often communicated by Donald Trump. “The EU must be careful here not to lose touch with an important future market,” adds Brühl.
It is also interesting to note that the vast majority of respondents (84%) believe that the inflation rate in the US is more likely to rise in future. This would contradict the declared aim of the designated Trump government to reduce the cost of living for the population.
“The EU is called upon to strengthen its competitiveness. This also and especially applies to the financial sector and the financial centre of Frankfurt. This is recognised across the board by the responsible players, which gives reason for confidence,” says Hubertus Väth, Managing Director of Frankfurt Main Finance.
