Looking back to the earlier part of the 2016-2020 period, Väth believes his city Frankfurt will ultimately come out on top when judged against other Brexit-buoyed European financial capitals such as Paris, Dublin and Amsterdam:
First, we have had more than 60 financial institutions that applied to expand or set up in Frankfurt. More than 30 of these decided to make Frankfurt their new EU hub. Even more significant is that four out of six biggest USA banks and four of six biggest Japanese banks made those decisions.
Global banking giants showing Frankfurt some love have included Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
By mid-2020, Väth says that Frankfurt had seen about 3,000 jobs created because of Brexit (as distinct from jobs relocating from London because of Brexit), with about 1,000 more in the pipeline that have largely yet to materialise due to Covid-19.
Beyond the EU-UK discussions on equivalence, banks continue to contend with a moving feast of non-explicitly-Brexit-related regulatory activity. As always, there are new laws being devised in Germany by the European institutions, for example Capital Markets Union and indeed in the UK, which is – of course – unwilling to let high-multiplier international banking jobs go without a fight. At the UK end is a consultation launched in January 2021 by the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority on ‘branch and subsidiary supervision’ for international banks – a follow-up to a 2018 document.
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